Sunday, February 19, 2023

A Salute, not a farewell. Ghassan Kadi February 2023

 
https://thesaker.is/a-salute-not-a-farewell/

A salute, not a farewell

by Ghassan Kadi for the Saker blog

I started following The Saker about ten years ago. I cannot be sure how and when it started, but I was formally ‘introduced’ to him in 2015 after which he began to publish my work and Intibah’s (my wife).

‘The Saker’, Andrei, became an instant friend and confidant. He gave me a voice when all former ‘friends’ tried to muffle me, attacked me, and even sent me death threats.

It wasn’t always a smooth track to tread. We disagreed on some issues, he declined to accept some submissions I made, but what the heck? If people and friends don’t agree that sometimes they must disagree, then they cannot claim to have a real friendship.

With that said, he did publish most of my work even when he felt that he shouldn’t, without much regard to the backlash that this could bring upon him personally.

Andrei, The Saker, has always acted like a real hero.

In the back of my mind, I had always felt that he will always be there for me to write and make submissions to. I never stopped for one moment to think that he is also a human like all of us. This is where I feel guilty.

And in the last year or so, looking at the state of the world, at many levels, I felt that I had ran out of thoughts and ideas that can be transcribed into words that could make any impact on the sad and suicidal trajectory of a humanity that is steadfastly going towards. I felt speechless.

But this didn’t need to stop me from communicating with my friend Andrei, but it did. I didn’t even send him an Orthodox Christmas greeting.

Sometimes in life, we rotate around a fulcrum that we take for granted thinking that it will always be there for us to gravitate to and unite. And just like children believe that their parents will always be there, as adults we also tend to do this, we often forget that those fulcrums are humans, just like us, humans that may have super powers, but they remain to be humans.

There are a few humans that I have had the pleasure to know who have super powers; and Andrei is definitely high on this list.

This is the end of an era; a big turning point in my life that the lives of many.

Andrei, my friend, you gave me the platform that enabled me to express my feelings about many injustices, mis-and-dis-information. You gave Ghassan Kadi a new lease in life at a time when his message was drowned. You judged ‘him’ and his work by their merit; not by the nasty messages you were receiving. You supported Syria to which I am extremely thankful.

As ‘The Saker’ shuts down, so will Ghassan. Ghassan Kadi is only my pen name, and this ‘character’ will now ‘die’.

But the saker (hawk) only soars up in the sky, and when it dives down, it only does this as a prelude to soar again; soon, later, or in another realm.

It seems strange as I feel that I am writing a eulogy. This is a letter of appreciation and thankfulness to a man who is integrity-driven. I am so grateful that he can read these words because eulogies are never heard by the deceased.

Andrei, Saker, our friend, our hero, Intibah and I salute you. We look forward to seeing you around the corner in a better place.

Much Love and Respect

Ghassan




  1. Hi Ghassan – your articles always were interesting – so human and easy to read and understand. And adorable Intibah who was always ready to comment on my comments. I felt so honored. She is so fiery and ready to inter-act.

    I hope Saker reopens his blog soon. I believe that even the globalists don’t want nuclear war. And the US is going to back down. They can’t fight a war they can afford and where are they going to get the ammo for it ?

    Everything they need is made in China – I don’t understand this chaos the people behind Biden – aligned with the globalists are doing – is it to de-stabilize the US population perhaps ? So they won’t fight the CBDCs and all the other horrible things the globalists have planned for us

    But I do understand Saker’s apprehension of being apprehended as a Russian spy – and its only wisdom that is driving this closure. There are many voices now – whereas at the beginning of Maidan – there was only Saker God Bless Saker

    But I hope so much he will only come back to us soon

    Love Ann

  2. Thanks for a great read. My feelings too.
    We all hate to see the Saker’s website go.
    But we all also know the ground is shifting, and one has to do what one has to do.
    I wish the Saker the best, and much prosperity on whatever new adventures his future will bring.
    From this CNN article* posted just today, it looks like a lockdown might be on the horizon.
    Sounds like the internet is going to be reigned in.
    The Saker may be getting out of Dodge just in time…….. . . . .

    *https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/18/tech/section-230-explainer/index.html

  3. Ghassan,

    Your words, most eloquent, capture my sentiments about Andrei and his blog. Since 2014 if not sometime before, I have come to the Vineyard of the Saker almost every day on which I have had access to the computer, sometimes early in the morning with my coffee or late at night with a glass of cold milk. It has been part of my physical, mental and spiritual routine for nearly ten years.

    Thank you and Intibah for your work and contributions. I pray that God will bring us all back together in a time of His choosing.

  4. Ghassan, you will be missed, as will the The Saker site, I hate to call it a “blog” because it almost sounds demeaning. It is a huge loss, when I read the news Andrei was shutting it down I was not suprized considering he had warned previously it may come to that, but when I read the news it still made me feel deeply upset. Some would say, big deal, it’s only a website, there are others, there will be others, so what? Infact, normally, that is the kind of thing I would say. But not The Saker, it is so much more than either a “blog” or even a “website”, it has been my first point of call for years every time I switch on my PC & click on the internet, straight to The Saker to see what is new & interesting there, & always anticipating articles by favourite authors such as yourself, & Andrei’s. It is heartbreaking. Maybe I am being melodramatic, it is not really in my character, but it does feel like something is being lost that can not be replaced. You will be missed Ghassan.

  5. Dearest Peace Warrior Andrei, “The Saker”,
    I struggle to adequately express my appreciation of and gratitude for a soul like you.
    You were present, and for sure will continue to be present, in the most crucial time of a global transition, one where all of us in this community know that goodness will finally overcome evil.

    For the past decade I witnessed your selfless, no doubt exhausting mission to lead, in a participatory and empowering manner, a global movement, via the world-wide-web, of seekers of and contributors to the unveiling of facts, truths and the values of a dignified Russia, a Russia that has continued holding out the hand of friendship and integrity towards other “partners” hell-bent on choosing the dark side at every turn, and more so as they slip into a decline.

    For those arrogant and mired in the illusion of feeling exceptional and that only those of their paradigm matter, they will hopefully learn that a mighty nation or empire is only mighty because it stands before God and is humble.

    Thank you, Russia, for caring for Syria in the way you did and still do.
    Thank you Saker, for being passionate about the nations that suffer at the hands of the failing empire.
    Thank you for welcoming Ghassan and I (since 2015) to contribute our thoughts (articles) to the incredible phenomenon of the platform, community and movement you began.
    And finally thank you to the readers, authors and all the supporters who also not only cared about Russia but also Russia’s friends.

    Your friend forever,
    “Intibah Kadi”


Sunday, March 20, 2022

IS THE PETRODOLLAR SWAYING? By Ghassan Kadi 20 March 2022


Ghassan Kadi's thoughts on the future of the
Petrodollar

http://thesaker.is/is-the-petrodollar-swaying/

Is the Petrodollar swaying?

By Ghassan Kadi for the Saker Blog

The Russian special operation in Ukraine has created the potential for an avalanche of geopolitical and geo-economic changes. Some of them were bound to happen; just waiting for a trigger factor.

Is the end of the Petrodollar one of them?

To understand the importance of the Petrodollar, we need to go back to its origin and definition.

Many articles and definitions have been given over the years to explain what the Petrodollar is all about; but none in my opinion comes close to the one explained by Mamdouh Salameh. Back in 2015, he predicted that the Petrodollar might have outlived its use-by date. His prediction is perhaps now outdated, but that aside, an extract of the abstract of his article outlines the definition and the importance of the Petrodollar for the US economy

‘The Petrodollar came into existence in 1973 in the wake of the collapse of the international gold standard which was created in the aftermath of WWII under the Britton Woods agreements. These agreements also established the US Dollar as the reserve currency of the world. The Nixon Administration understood that the collapse of the gold standard system would cause a decline in the global demand for the US Dollar. Maintaining demand for the US Dollar was vital for the United States’ economy. So, the United States under Nixon struck a deal in 1973 with Saudi Arabia.

Under the terms of the deal, the Saudis would agree to price all of their oil exports in US Dollar exclusively and be open to invest their surplus oil proceeds in US debt securities. In return, the United States offered weapons and protection of Saudi oil fields from neighboring countries including Israel. For the Americans, the Petrodollar increases demand for the US dollar and also for US debt securities and allows the US to buy oil with a currency it can print at will. In 1975, all of the OPEC nations agreed to follow suit. Maintaining the Petrodollar is America’s primary goal’.

Do you get the picture?

The Petrodollar was meant to be a win-win agreement in which America propped up its economy, and in return supplied Saudi Arabia with security.

As time went by, the deal became increasingly one-sided, one in which Saudi Arabia was getting the spiky end of the pineapple. The Saudis have been feeling shafted for a long time, but they did not have enough intestinal fortitude to stand up and show their dismay to Uncle Sam.

When America asked old-school Saudi royals to jump, they asked how high. Love him or hate him, young Saudi Crown Prince Muhamed Bin Salman (MBS) is different.

Over the last few years, I have written many scathing articles about MBS’s character, ambitions, thirst for power, sneaky behind-the-scenes deals with Israel, but the biggest black mark against him will always be his war on Yemen. I will not suddenly make a 180 degree turn and start praising him. But credit must be given when credit is due.

MBS happened to rise to power on the eve of Saudi Arabia’s failure in Syria. For fairness, this was not a war he started.

When he took control, Saudi Arabia had already lost its war in Syria, its biggest ally in Lebanon (Hariri) proved to be a wimp and a hopeless ally despite all the support and bottomless funds he received in order to put Hezbollah under control. In Yemen, the Houthis had already taken control of the capital Sanaa. Iran was moving in on Saudi Arabia on 3 fronts; or at least this was how he perceived it.

This is not to forget the oil price war that Saudi Arabia waged on Russia. It is difficult to put all of those events in exact chronological order because they are all interwoven and happened almost concurrently. Back in 2016, Saudi Arabia decided to increase its oil production in order to drop the crude oil price and put pressure on Russia in Syria. The plan backfired and only resulted in a huge slump in the price of oil, and when MBS tried to reverse that decision and bring the crude price back up again, he was unable to.

MBS inherited a Saudi Arabia that was teetering on the edge. He had few options to restore its image and stature. It faced bankruptcy and for the first time since its oil boom nearly a whole century ago, it fell into debt and he took drastic domestic spending cut measures.

He had to do something.

His American allies during the Obama Administration convinced him that defeating the Houthis was going to be a walk in the park. MBS was led to believe that his venture in Yemen will be a swift blitz, and he gave it a name to that effect; Operation Decisive Storm.

The last thing that MBS wanted was a letdown from his American allies.

The Obama Administration however proved to be either unable or unwilling to provide him with what it took to win that war.

Trump, on the other hand, made his first overseas visit as a President to Saudi Arabia. He reassured the Saudis of America’s adherence to its obligations of protecting them and canceled Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran.

But the tables turned later on when Biden went further than Obama, making a 180-degree turn. He didn’t only threaten to cut off arms supplies to Saudi Arabia, but openly said that he is also desirous to resume talks with Iran in an attempt to resurrect the nuclear deal. In effect, Biden has breached the 1973 Petrodollar agreement and which clearly stipulates that the USA must protect Saudi Arabia.

A couple of weeks short of the seven years anniversary, nothing can excuse MBS for putting his ego before the lives and welfare of Yemeni people. That war has raged on for so long and created massive human tragedies.

So how do the events in Ukraine come into the picture?

With the global repercussions of the Russian operation in Ukraine reverberating all over the world, MBS is eyeing Uncle Sam, vowing that it is pay-back time.

America has actually requested ‘friendly’ countries to condemn the Russian action. Thus far, some, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have refrained from responding. This is an unprecedented Saudi stand.

In my previous article, I predicted that America’s sanctions against Russia would backfire. But, is MBS’s stand now related to the sanctions against Russia? The simple answer is yes.

America does not expect MBS to only condemn Russia and mirror the sanctions, but it also expects him to pump more oil into the global market in order to meet the shortfall created by the sanctions.

MBS is not playing ball the way America wants him to play. He is refusing to condemn Russia, thus far refusing to lift oil production. But most seriously, he is discussing with China doing oil transactions in the Yuan (Renminbi) instead of the USD.

Whilst the talks are not about doing all oil transactions in Yuan, it is however the beginning of a new trend that may see the eventual end of the Petrodollar. This is the first serious nail in its coffin.

If the Petrodollar collapses, quantitative easing (ie printing money) will constitute a more serious problem for the American economy.

Whilst writing the previous above-mentioned article, I did not expect that events were going to happen so quickly and that cracks alluding to the fall of the USD as the single global reserve currency were going show in less than a week. But here we are. The first steps have already been taken.

MBS seems to be maturing enough to know how to play the game of the big boys. What is really pertinent is that the so-called Petrodollar, and what is left of its future, rest in his hands; and America has no say in this. Even as I finalize this article, news of a USD collapse is already being reported on the mainstream media. With the deployment of the Kinzhal missile yesterday, the first-ever use of hypersonic weapons in combat, we can surely be certain that the changes we are witnessing now, economic or military, are not ones that the West ever desired or envisaged.

 

Saturday, March 12, 2022

BOOMERANG SANCTIONS By Ghassan Kadi 12 March 2022

Ghassan Kadi considers the true implications of American sanctions on Russia

http://thesaker.is/boomerang-sanctions/

Boomerang Sanctions

by Ghassan Kadi, for the Saker Blog

Do Western sanctions have any chance of achieving their objectives? Perhaps we need to look back at history and see how the earliest recorded sanctions were implemented.

Before the age of electronic transfers and massive international trading and complex technology came into existence, warring factions enforced sanctions on each other by way of imposing sieges, and therefore cutting off food and water supplies to heavily fortified cities. Those cities had to ration out their supplies, and when they ran out, they often capitulated.

Much has changed since, but the only way for any sanction to work now is in the ability to deprive a nation from goods and services that are essential. But this is now easier said than done.

In today’s age of technology and all what comes with it, the world depends on a huge array of manufactured goods for its economy and the services that support that economy to run. Manufactured good are themselves made of parts often made in different countries and assembled together somewhere else. Many, if not most of those goods and parts, are made in China, and this is fact.

How do we know that the manufacturers of American/NATO military hardware do not use parts and components that are made in China and no longer made in the West? They can be as simple as special size or shape screw, but without it, the strategic weapon cannot be assembled. And if one of the suppliers of hardware to the Pentagon suddenly wakes up to the realization that it needs the part that is made in China to put together a strategic defence weapon, what will happen then? Alternative Western productions lines can be put to work, but these things take time, and time is precious commodity in the event of a military blitz.

But here is more. Even if in peacetime an American buys a T-shirt made in America from American grown cotton, the cotton crop is highly likely to have been fertilized with urea imported from China. As a matter of fact, China controls a huge sector of the global fertilizer market, and when one controls food and its production, no other leverage becomes comparable in magnitude. Having control of the food supply is tantamount to the ancient city sieges.

The dependence of the West on China therefore is alarming, and the examples mentioned above, have been selected to demonstrate that Western sanctions against China, if ever implemented, would boomerang and hit the West in the guts.

The whole world and particularly the West are reliant on and addicted to Chinese goods. All the way from T-shirts to iPhones, a huge percentage of global consumable goods are made in China.

China is therefore the ultimate example of where American sanctions would fail abysmally. As a matter of fact, if anything at all, a Chinese export sanction against America would bring the latter to its knees in a few weeks if not less.

What about Russia? Are American sanctions effective against Russia? Thus far, they haven’t been. Time will tell if new ones will, but Russia does not ‘need’ any American imports or franchises. Russia does not need either McDonald’s or Starbucks. It doesn’t need those fast-food chains that litter its streets. Honestly, what a manner to sanction Russia with? What is next, the Disney Channel?

It is America that needs Russian rocket engines and not the other way around. Fancy this, comparing rocket engines to hamburgers.

And with its ties with China, Russia has a huge export market of gas and petroleum crude, all the while Western EU slumps into cold nights or enormous power bills. In the last couple of days alone, the price of gas has nearly doubled.

What is pertinent here is going back to the basics and remembering that any talk of sanctions can only be effective if based on depriving an adversary from what its people 1) need and 2) want. Currently, there is no product, no commodity, no technology, absolutely nothing that is essential for the rest of the world, that the West exclusively produces and the rest of the world cannot.

The current Western sanctions on nations that refuse to follow the directives of the West do not carry any weight at all; or anything that comes close. Non-Western countries can survive without Tesla, Porsche and Ferrari cars. Earth will continue to spin without French perfumes and champaign.

With those facts known though unspoken, the USA continues to impose sanctions on other nations by utilizing the power of the Greenback, ie US Dollar of USD for short.

But this approach is foolish to say the least, and it is bound to backfire.

America is determined to keep the stature of the USD as the single reserve world currency. But to maintain this stature, America must make sure that the rest of the world needs to use the USD and that it has no other alternative. But when successive American administrations impose sanctions on other nations that prevent them from using the USD, they are effectively shooting their last and only remaining asset in the foot.

This is not a complex issue that requires a PhD in macro-economics to understand. It is very simple in fact. You cannot coerce people to do something by way of banning them from doing it. This is a simple logical contradiction that even children can understand.

This oxymoronic comedy of errors appears more ludicrous when we see that the USD is the only asset left that the USA can use to impose sanctions with. Do successive American administrations really believe that sanctioned and potentially sanctionable nations, are going to sit idle and starve themselves to death without taking pre-emptive measures to avert this?

If anything, sanctions over the years have taught even small and developing countries like Cuba, Syria and Iran to be self-reliant and innovative. Those countries have produced whole ‘armies’ of technicians who are able to manufacture spare parts even for old American cars. When you see photos of 1950’s Chevvies in Cuba, rest assured that there are hardly any original made-in-America parts left in them. If an American owns such an antique model and cannot find parts for it in the US, he/she may be able to find them in Cuba.

What makes the situation more farcical is that America knows well that China and Russia are intent to replace the USD as the single global reserve currency with China having a good chance to have it replaced by the Renminbi. It is also no secret that both Russia and China have been buying huge amounts of gold, and this is not to mention that they already have an alternative to the SWIFT system (СПФС or SPFS) of international banking transfers.

Back in the days of city sieges, the Athenians built their infamous horse, the original horse that coined the term ‘Trojan Horse’ and tricked the Trojans to take it into Troy. But in the West right now, there are no such strategists.

The current soaring fuel prices at service stations world-wide are not an outcome of the Russian action in Ukraine. They are the outcome of the sanctions.

These sanctions can only turn back and hurt the hand that created them. They are not arrows aimed at targets. They are boomerangs, but even boomerangs are meant to return to the hand that launched them when they miss the target. But Western sanctions are sharply-pointed boomerangs that can only hit back, and hit with vengeance, and the soaring fuel prices may just be only the beginning.

 

Saturday, March 5, 2022

LEBANON, UKRAINE AND TAIWAN by Ghassan Kadi 5 March 2022

 Ghassan Kadi's observations of parallelism in global events. 

His article two days ago was a helpful introduction to the issue.

http://thesaker.is/lebanon-ukraine-and-taiwan/


Lebanon, Ukraine and Taiwan

By Ghassan Kadi for the Saker Blog

As the European colonialist empires were being dismantled, many nations that gained independence inherited enormous problems that remain unresolved to-date. If anything, countries like India and Pakistan are currently in a bigger state of discord than the one that led to partition and the creation of Pakistan in 1947; and this is an understatement. They are adversaries, both nuclear capable and armed to the hilt. The reunification of Greater India does not seem plausible; at least not in the foreseeable future.

On the home front, with the French slicing Lebanon away from Syria and the creation of the independent state of ‘Grand Liban’ back in 1920, Lebanon was soon to blossom, producing a tale of substantial success. But this success came to an unceremonious end as the Civil War broke out in 1975, after which Lebanon was not only destroyed, but rendered as a failed state and one that exports instability to its neighbour Syria, to which it historically and demographically belongs.

Foreign interference, mainly from the West, turned Lebanon into a dagger pointed at Syria’s soft underbelly. Certainly, many Lebanese disagree with this statement and regard Syria, not the West, as the source of instability in Lebanon.

Almost concurrently, the origin of the creation of the modern state of Ukraine in 1922, sits with the USSR. And later, it was Stalin who negotiated having a vote for Ukraine in the UN General Assembly only to be followed by Khrushchev who gifted Crimea to Ukraine. But for a long time, Kiev was historically the capital of the Russian Empire, just like Damascus was once the capital of today’s Lebanon.

With financial incitements and bribery, corruption became endemic in Ukraine and the West eventually turned it into Russia’s Lebanon. Not surprisingly, some Ukrainians, corrupt in nature and their cronies, only see facts from their own blurred vision and tinted spectacles, but historic and demographic facts cannot be changed.

Pending issues between Syria and Lebanon are not the business of the West or any other foreign entity. The onus is on the Lebanese and Syrians to resolve this situation which can only be achieved when Lebanon returns to its Syrian roots. Many Lebanese may need more punishment to reach this understanding and acceptance.

Likewise, the Ukrainian/Russian crisis is an internal issue that the rest of the world has no business involving itself with. It is that section of Ukrainian Western cronies who have caused the problem, and this needs to be firmly and effectively dealt with.

But the British, French, Dutch and others were not the only producers of post-imperial havoc. The USA played a huge role in this ever since the end of WWII.

Vietnam resolved the partition issue, but the cost was enormous. Korea still hasn’t, and it won’t for as long as South Korea is under the influence of the Western Hemisphere. To complicate matters more for Korea, South Korea is an enormous technological, industrial and financial success whilst the North is not. Having said that, the economic dichotomy did not stand in the way of the reunification of Germany. In hindsight, and against the divide-and-conquer doctrine, the West applauded German reunification. But one would not have to be cynical to conclude that the West regarded it as a stepping stone towards more influence in Eastern Europe and an opportunity to move closer to Russia’s borders.

As the influence of the West is waning globally and domestically, instead of turning its focus into rebuilding its home-grown literal and virtual rust belts, the West continues to set traps for future global conflicts.

China took back Hong Kong in 1997 because the agreement between it and the UK expired. But Taiwan is a different matter. Taiwan exists as an independent state, even though no longer unanimously recognized internationally as being such. But until the Nixon administration opened up dialogue with the People’s Republic of China, Taiwan was the UN member that represented China and even had a permanent position in the UNSC; including the Veto power.

But Taiwan became separated from the mainland only because the Nationalists (headed by Chiang Kai Shek), escaped to Taiwan after their defeat by the Communists (headed by Mao Zedong). The West saw in two Chinas a status quo that is weaker than a single united China, and one that they could use as a bulkhead against China. It therefore stood against any attempts of reunification. The argument however that the impasse between China and Taiwan is an internal and domestic issue is valid.

Chinese reunification is a matter of time. It is hoped that both parties will negotiate it peacefully instead of it involving a military takeover, one which could see a heavily armed Taiwan put up a big fight. If Taiwan thinks that the West will come to its aid and fight on its side, all it has to do is learn from Ukraine’s experience.

Whilst the parable of Lebanon vis-à-vis Syria may appear proportionally inadequate to use as an example to describe Ukraine as Russia’s Lebanon or Taiwan as China’s Lebanon, the principle applies despite the huge difference in size and military capacities of China and Russia in comparison to Syria. But this is one of the shortfalls of Western thinking, one that believes that it will forever be able to bully everyone, including other superpowers.

For decades, statements alluding to any aspirations for reuniting states that have been divided by larger global powers were seen by the West-dominated international community as taboo, as attempts to destabilize the world. In the Levant for example, it is still almost illegal to say that Lebanon and Syria should be united. And when China says that Taiwan is a part of China, the West fumes with anger and regards the statement as one that is aimed against the national and security interests of the West. And of course, Russia is ‘not allowed’ to say that Ukraine is part of historical Russia.

Ironically however, and as the Western anti-reunification rhetoric intensifies, there has never been a better time for nations still reeling from post-colonial divisions to reunite.

Political maps constantly change and always have. India and Pakistan, and with the later addition of Bangladesh, will probably remain as separate entities for a very long time. The two Koreas will have to wait, but perhaps not for as long as India and Pakistan. Lebanon and Syria have more critical problems do deal with currently than to worry about reunification. But if anything, in being the bully and intervening between Ukraine and Russia on one hand, and Taiwan and China on the other hand, the West is inadvertently forcing both Russia and China to take affirmative action and bolster their bilateral relationship at many levels. We have thus far seen Russia saying ‘enough is enough’. Whether China employs the current state of global turmoil and the over occupation of the West with the events in Ukraine to move towards Taiwan remains to be seen.

 



Friday, March 4, 2022

A MATTER OF SELF DEFENCE By Ghassan Kadi 3 March 2022

A succinct explanation of where Russia stands re Ukraine from a moral viewpoint. 

https://thesaker.is/a-matter-of-self-defence/

A matter of self-defence

by Ghassan Kadi for the Saker blog

I am not here to write about historic, strategic and military details pertaining to the issues surrounding the Ukraine crisis. Apart from those fabricating Hollywood material, there are many excellent analysts covering these areas competently.

But as a Syrian/Lebanese, within my limited capacity, I have a duty to show support and reciprocate Russia’s support to Syria where it is due and, in this case, it is as it is one that is based on truths and moral issues that cannot be overlooked, even if Russia did not support Syria at all.

What I want to discuss is the justification and morality of self-defence.

War is a heavily-loaded word, a word that implies man killing man, humanity fighting humanity, armies pillaging nations, creating orphans and widows, refugees, sex slaves, destroying civilizations, economies, beautiful ancient architectural icons and a whole hoard of other atrocities that often are never repaired or resolved.

But there are wars and there are wars.

One cannot place the actions of the USA’s invasion of Iraq in the same basket as that of resistance against Nazi occupation.

People, and nations, have the right of self-defence. Self-defence is not an act of aggression. It is an act to prevent further aggression.

Not surprisingly, when the rules of the jungle prevail, just like in La Fontaine’s fables, aggressors on one hand conjure up for themselves the justification to kill, and on the other hand, they vilify the victims of their aggression when they try to exercise their right of self-defence.

The USA has been engaged in wars ever since WWII ended. Beginning with the Korean War, the West moved the theatre to Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Iraq I and Iraq II, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria; not to mention other smaller wars. In reality, there was never ever any justification for any of them and the national security of the United States of America was never under threat by any of those much pooper and much less equipped nations.

What is ironic is the fact that even though the odds were always in favour of America, and this is an understatement, America never won any of those wars. Some cynics argue that America’s objectives were not about winning wars but about leaving mess and destruction behind. Whilst I partially agree with this sentiment, I cannot accept that America has intentionally invaded Iraq to hand it on a silver platter to Iran any more that it invaded Taliban’s Afghanistan to hand it back to the Taliban. Those who believe that America has always been successful in achieving its target of havoc seem to give it more kudos than it deserves. I genuinely believe that America has been a total failure and that its performance as the world’s self-appointed custodian of the post WWII era had been abysmal to put it mildly.

Perhaps America could be excused for it actions during the hot Cold-War era. It was a period of uncertainty, fear, and what was behind the ‘dreaded’ ‘Iron Curtain’ left little surprises to be desired.

But, using American administration rhetoric, with the dismantling of the USSR this hot-cold War era was also supposed to cease.

Contrary to the commonly-held belief in the West, America did not win the Cold War. The Cold War ended when Gorbachev negotiated with Raegan the terms of disengagement. https://sputniknews.com/20190402/gorbachev-nato-expansion-reasons-1073764558.html

The rest is history. The manner in which America broke all of its promises to never encroach into Eastern Europe, how it coaxed former Warsaw Pact nations to join NATO, how it positioned missiles close to Russian borders, how it pillaged Serbia, how it tried to create a puppet regime in Georgia in 2008, how it sponsored a coup d’etat in Ukraine in 2014 putting Neo-Nazis in charge, how it bombarded the Eastern provinces for eight long years, how it reneged on the Minsk Agreements, how it refused to reach a deal on Ukraine in Jan 2022, a deal that took into consideration Russia’s legitimate security concerns, are all acts of provocation that can only lead to war; a Russian war of self-defence.

Western arrogance remains high despite the fact that Russia has clearly demonstrated red lines in Georgia and Syria. But Kiev is not Damascus. Kiev was the capital of the Russian Empire long before Texas was a state of the Union.

Furthermore, Russia is not Afghanistan or Somalia. Russia is not only a nuclear superpower, but also one with weaponry that is far more advanced than the West’s.

The Western bully has been picking on the wrong would-be adversary, and for a very long time.

What is most unbelievable about the current situation is the Western European compliance with America’s stance. Americans may well be distanced from the history and internal politics of Europe, but Germany, France, Italy and Spain must surely know better, but they are behaving in a manner as if they are either totally ignorant or extremely callous.

Puppet states of Eastern Europe should look over their shoulders and see what real support Ukraine is receiving from America after America promised Ukraine the world and then hung it out to dry.

This brings us back to the issue of drawing the line between instigating war for no reason other than imperial gain and fighting legitimately for self-defence.

The West and its media are taking the line of presenting Russia as the aggressor, portraying Putin as a crazed Tzar who wants to rebuild the USSR; not only ignoring the events of 2014 onwards, but also ignoring past and present atrocities of the West that had no justification at all.

Have we forgotten Iraq’s WMD blunder?

Russia did all it could to avert a military confrontation in Ukraine.

For eight long years, Russia refused to acknowledge the independence of the eastern provinces.

Russia continued to keep all bridges of communication with the West open in the hope of reaching an agreement to end the impasse.

Russia made it clear to America time after time, that it has red lines that cannot be crossed, including not accepting Ukraine to join NATO.

But all that America did was to ignore and continue to intimidate. When the talk about the impending Russian invasion of Ukraine was flagged on Western media, it was because America had the full intention to make sure that the January 2022 Switzerland talks with Russia must fail leaving the military option alone on the table.

The actions of Russia to neutralize and de-Nazify Ukraine are acts of self-defence. Any fair and proper court of justice would attest to this, but not in the West, where media is the echo chamber of the Western globalists and the only key to the hearts and minds of people in the West who unquestionably believe what their media dishes out.

But why are some of Russians so surprised and dismayed now by the new wave of anti-Russian propaganda? Lucky enough to visit Russia a few years ago, I found myself in an alternative paradigm; not a ‘Truman Show’ little bubble, but a huge world that did what it believed was right and didn’t give a pig’s butt (excuse the French) about what the West and Western media thought and decreed.

I was able to see the so-called ‘iron curtain’, way after the USSR was no longer, but not from a Western xenophobic vantagepoint, but from a Russian one that did not seem to care much at all about the views and the attitude of the West.

It was disappointing to see Western franchises like Starbucks and McDonald’s, but Russia looked like a proud stand-alone nation that is big enough, strong enough and rich enough to dictate its own directive and destiny.

If anything, a few years later, Russia is now in a much stronger position to dictate what it wants to the old ailing West and the stronger sanctions today are not going to be any more effective than previous milder ones.

President Biden now represents the West in many more ways than one. Not only he is meant to be the leader of the so-called ‘Free World’, but at his old age, a mental state that borders dementia, he represents the global hemisphere that has lost its technical edge and rationality; not to mention economic clout.

It is very sad that the once developed West that paved the rest of the world in technology and innovation has put its leadership under the hands of short-sighted impotent leaders like Biden, Merkel (formerly), Johnson and Macron. Those weak and shortsighted leaders are pushing the West into the corner of cultural suicide.

They represent the political legacy that led to the exodus of Western manufacturing base.

They are the legacy that destroyed family values, cultural values as well as moral values.

They are the ones forcing Russia to create an alternative global power with China; the West’s main and primary competitor.

But the problem with Western political leaders is that they are not serving their own people; they are serving their sponsors and their own profit and loss statements.

Nations are not corporations, and the corporate aspect of Western political leadership is bursting its own bubble. It is not ready to confront the challenges of either Russia or China, let alone both of them combined. The West continues to live in the euphoria of a bygone era in which it had the upper hand by way of being a leader in technological advances and manufacturing which are the basic foundations for strong economies. It has lost its technical edge, placing itself in a conflict it can neither win, let alone be able to fight.

The West needs to learn to accept humility as a desired value. For the sake of humanity as a whole, it needs to learn this lesson before its obstinance and arrogance leads the world into further and deeper wars and disasters.





Friday, May 21, 2021

The forthcoming inevitable battle for Middle-East Peace By Ghassan Kadi 5 May 2021

 Ghassan Kadi's thoughts on the latest power games in the region The forthcoming inevitable battle for Middle-East Peace | The Vineyard of the Saker

The forthcoming inevitable battle for Middle-East Peace

by Ghassan Kadi for the Saker Blog

The alleged stray ground-to-air Syrian missile that landed near the nuclear reactor in Dimona Israel carried many messages; both overt and covert.

And, as if the fact that this missile managed to penetrate Israel’s formidable ‘Iron Dome’ was not embarrassing enough for Israel, the official Israeli report alleged that the missile was actually Iranian-made; not Russian as initially perceived by the world.

In other words, the Israeli report is saying that its ‘Iron Dome’ has been easily penetrated by a missile that is 1) not meant to hit ground targets, 2) had already spent its fuel and maneuverability and was literally on a free fall trajectory by gravitation and not propulsion, 3) yet it penetrated the allegedly most advance air defense system in the world, and 4) above all, it was made in Iran; a nation ‘crippled by sanctions and governed by ‘fundamentalist Mullas’.

Seriously, Israel has never before admitted a defense failure that is even close to such similar proportions.

Ironically, almost simultaneously, Iran revealed photos of an American aircraft carrier taken by a drone; not to forget mentioning that Iran also revealed that it has developed kamikaze drones ready to attack any target within their range in the Gulf.

But the Dimona incident alone cannot be seen in isolation of the recent Russian ‘diplomacy’ initiatives in the Middle East. I have deliberately put the word diplomacy under inverted comas, because that Russian version of diplomacy has a side that proves its worth in both traditional diplomatic ways as well as ones that are unorthodox.

Russia has thus far been very tight-lipped about its objectives in the Middle East. My own analysis of it has landed me in hot water with Russian friends and media allies, and I accept their stand. Perhaps they do not want me to ‘spoil the hidden agenda’, but my role as an analyst is not going to stop, and their views, directives, and concerns will not make me feel guilty for expressing my analyses and predictions.

In this portrayal of recent regional political events in the Middle east, I am relying on bits of pieces of information from here and there, but the analysis of it all is based on my own understanding of what makes sense in combining all what is currently taking place. My analysis does not represent the views of any blog, news agency or government. I have expressed similar views earlier, but events keep progressing, and in every step of the way, it seems that my initial prediction about the Russian initiative in the Middle East was accurate. So here is an updated summary of it all with a bit repetition of earlier material for the benefit of first-time readers.

Ever since Russia responded to Syria’s request to offer military aid, Russia responded with accepting the request under certain conditions; conditions that stipulate a Syrian-Israeli peace settlement agreement.

But this wasn’t all. Putin’s Russia is trying to reverse what Kissinger did to Russia some forty years ago when he catapulted the USSR out of Middle East politics and conned Egypt into accepting a unilateral peace deal with Israel in the so-called Camp David Accords.

Ever since then, Russia has been deprived of a role to play in the Middle East, none at all, until Putin sent troops into Syria and thereby changing the status quo not only in the Middle East, but also heralding the end of the single global superpower status of the post USSR USA.

The post-USSR world has seen Russia suffering from huge American-based NATO encroachments in Eastern Europe, and the current impasse in Ukraine is only one aspect of it. Former Warsaw Pact nations have gone full dipole away from Russia and in cahoots with their new-found Western ‘allies’. The Stalin era might have left a bitter taste in the palate of some East European countries, but this was a long time ago, and nations like Poland and Ukraine surely must understand and know who are their historic regional and global allies. With the era of Nazism and Fascism in the dust bin of history that Europe would like to forget, even Germany and France ought to realize that today’s Russia cannot be associated with Stalin’s-USSR any more than today’s Germany and France can be associated with Hitler and Petain.

And, if Poland wants to remained mentally entrenched in the Stalin era and forget about who liberated it from Nazi occupation, it should look further back in history and remember that the partition of Poland in the 19th Century was not only orchestrated by the Russian Czars, but also in collaboration with Prussia and Austria.

As discussed in the previous article, the current animosity of Eastern European nations towards Russia is not something that can be rationally explained and justified.

Back to the Middle East.

Only Russia can broker a peace deal in the Middle East, a deal that includes not only Syria and Israel, but also Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

The main sticking elements in any such deal are Israel and Turkey, and to a lesser extent Iran.

In the same previous article mentioned above, I predicted a win-win scenario that Russia will broker between Iran and Saudi Arabia; one that guarantees the mutual withdrawal of Iran from Syria and Saudi Arabia from Yemen. As a matter of fact, a few days ago Saudi Crown Prince MBS announced that he wants to have a good relationship with Iran. Is this a sign that this deal is closer than we think? Perhaps not, but I cannot think of any other reason.

Turkey will undoubtedly want a bite of the cherry, and I not sure how will Russia be able to diplomatically appease Erdogan without giving him too much more than what he has taken already. However, his recent stand on Ukraine has put him in deep hot water with Russia and in any future bargains, he will find that his Ukraine venture will be used against him. He has deliberately introduced a bargaining chip that can be used only against himself.

This leaves Israel; how to bring Israel to the negotiating table for a deal that is unlike all previous American-brokered deals.

All American-brokered deals have thus far been based on providing Israel with the lion’s share and the Arab party with very little; especially when it came to making deals with the Palestinian Authority. Furthermore, on top of the political and strategic gains that America delivered to Israel in all of those deals, America ensured that Israel continued to have military superiority and that Arabs would never be able to score a major military victory, even if united.

Despite the October 1973 (ie Yom Kippur War) and what followed it, all the way up to the July 2006 war with Hezbollah, and the humiliations that Israel suffered from all of those military engagements, Israel remains mentally entrenched in the euphoria of the huge Six-Day War win of June 1967 and what ensued afterwards, resulting in what can best be described as the invincible army complex.

Israel will not be prepared to sign a peace agreement with Syria while it believes that it continues to have this military superiority; the power to shape events in its favour. For Israel to change course and become more realistic, it needs either a new generation of political leaders who are more rational, or a reality check; a punishment if you wish.

This is why it is that, inasmuch as the corridors of negotiations are opening up and the tables are being prepared, so are the drums of war.

It is worthy to note here that major reconstructions have not begun in Syria yet. The underlying message here is that perhaps Syria is expecting more carnage, and that reconstruction will have to wait. Why reconstruct twice? In its current state of devastation, Syria has little to lose.

Israel, on the other hand, is in a very vulnerable situation, and the Dimona incident has exposed this gaping hole.

Syria has exercised great restraint in the face of the ongoing Israeli airstrikes. Even though an Israeli jet was downed a few years ago, by-and-large, Syria has remained non-respondent. We do not know exactly what is happening behind the scenes, but it seems that Israel is misreading Syria’s lack of response and seeing weakness, despite information from Russia that such is not the case. Israel will continue to act like the regional bully, refusing to sit at the negotiating table as an equal partner, unless it receives a significant hit.

This hit is not necessarily one that will cause much carnage in Israel such as civilian and military loss of life. Putin will not accept or allow such a level of devastation to be inflicted on Israel. After all, a significant fraction of Israel’s population is originally Russian. Putin, furthermore, is intent on convincing Israel that it is Russia, and not America, that can give Israel real peace with its Arab neighbours.

To this effect, Israel only needs to lose a few fighter-jets, ten, maybe twenty, finding itself unable to defend key military and strategic land targets in order for it to realize that the days of military superiority are gone.

The Dimona incident is a forewarning, but only if Israel wants to read in between the lines. Otherwise, there will be a war in the Middle East, a war that will be intended to be contained and limited to be a punch, a powerful punch, but not a knockout.

With this said, this is the Middle East, a very volatile region, with many volatile heads. A limited war aimed at showing who has muscle may end up spiraling out of control and into something very large. With experience of such unpredictability, Syria is presenting to Israel that a long war will bring more destruction upon Israel than it will on an already destroyed Syria.

What seems certain is that peace initiatives are on the table, but not all parties are yet convinced that they will attend such talks as equal partners before some arms are twisted and statures rattled.


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