Friday, December 2, 2016

RAQQA OPERATION: US' POTENTIAL 'BARGAINING CHIP' IN POST-WAR TALKS OVER SYRIA IN POST WAR SYRIA By Ghassan Kadi 1 Dec 2016


Raqqa Operation: US' Potential 'Bargaining Chip' in Post-War Talks Over Syria


Raqqa Operation: US' Potential 'Bargaining Chip' in Post-War Talks Over Syria

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Washington's much-discussed Raqqa operation is yet another attempt to intimidate Russia, make Russo-Syrian military operations more difficult to conduct, and to create a "bargaining chip" for future post-war negotiations, Syrian political analyst Ghassan Kadi told Sputnik.

Washington's direct involvement in the Raqqa operation is aimed at intimidating Russia and creating leverage in post-war negotiations, Syrian political analyst and expert in Middle Eastern affairs Ghassan Kadi suggested speaking to Sputnik.

Still, Donald Trump's win in the US presidential election is likely to complicate the situation for American war planners.

"With or without a post-Trump inauguration foreign policy shift, if it happens, America knows well that it cannot have a long-term military presence in Syria," Kadi highlighted.

Raqqa Operation and Kurdish Issue

"But there is more to the American operation. Your question in fact brings in the Kurdish issue. America is hoping to be able to slice a piece off Syria and create an independent Kurdish state, and this is perhaps its major long-term aim," the analyst noted, adding that "this is where American and Turkish interests come at odds."

"Apart from the dangers of Syrian partition and what comes with it, my personal concern about this is what human cost Syrian Kurds may end up paying. This is why I am with the firm view that the prospect of creating a Kurdish state is one that the Syrian government should attempt to prevent by means of negotiation with the Kurds. One has to bear in mind that unlike what some fire stokers are trying to do in way of inflaming anti-Kurdish passions, not all Kurds seek partition," Kadi told Sputnik.

The analyst reiterated that a win-win solution on the issue can be reached only through constructive talks.

"The only win-win outcome for the Syrian government and Syrian Kurds combined is one that can be achieved by negotiation, and under the clear understanding that every inch of Syrian soil will need to remain under the roof of Damascus as I have argued in the past," Kadi stressed.

However, with Trump taking over the reins of leadership in the White House, it will become harder for US strategists to drive a wedge between Damascus and the Syrian Kurds.

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The Syrian analyst remarked that all depend on whether Trump will fulfill his election promises.

"How this will, or how this can, affect the situation in Syria will ultimately depend on the nature of the relationship President Trump will seek and manage to establish with Russia," Kadi underscored.

"And once again, thus far, Trump seems to be determined to seek better relationships with Russia. If this materializes, and if Trump acknowledges the underlying reasons behind the many failures of the Obama administration and decides to work together with Russia within Syria, then many sticking problems within Syria can be properly addressed and improved," the analyst pointed out.

Perhaps, Washington will finally disclose who the so-called moderate rebels are and where exactly they are located, he remarked.

Still, "Trump may even go a step further and announce that there are no such groups as moderate rebels and declare open season, and I think this is a likely prospect. Time will tell," Kadi noted.

The analyst assumed that the Russo-American partnership in Syria may pave the way for a US-Russian compromise on Ukraine.

Referring to the rise of French presidential hopeful Francois Fillon, the analyst called attention to the fact that Trump's win has apparently created a domino effect across Europe.

"Fillon seems to be on the same wavelength as his potential counterpart across the Atlantic," Kadi remarked.

"Trump's win may indeed herald a whole new age in American-EU-Russian inter-relationships," he believes.

Citing Trump's pragmatism, the analyst suggested that if the US President-elect implements a profit versus loss business model in his governance, "in this particular instance, he may end wars, albeit for financial reasons."

"A business-minded President who will only mind America's business and leaves the world alone is good enough for the whole world to take a sigh of relief," he stressed.

US soldiers stand near military vehicles, north of Raqqa city, Syria. File photo  - Sputnik International
US soldiers stand near military vehicles, north of Raqqa city, Syria. File photo

'Syrian Interim Government': New Plan to Legitimize US' Intervention

A few days ahead of the US presidential election renowned American academic Steven Heydemann wrote an op-ed for The New York Times, calling for recognizing the SIG (Syrian Interim Government) based in Idlib as the legitimate interim government of Syria to justify and legitimize American intervention in the country.

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"The White House should be concerned about handing the next president a Syrian crisis in which diplomatic possibilities have been all but foreclosed. These are concrete, practical steps it can take to equip the incoming administration with tools to regain leverage and revitalize diplomatic efforts to end Syria's bloody war," Heydemann argued.

Will the plan work?

"The article is quite obsolete in the sense that it was written before the American Presidential elections," Kadi noted.

"But this is not all: throughout history, it has always been the rule that the victor dictates the terms of post-war peace settlements; not the loser," he stressed.

"For nearly six years now since the 'War on Syria' started, a countless myriad of models based on the toppling, assassination and resignation of President Bashar al-Assad and replacing him have been proposed. None of them worked, even during the darkest hours of the President when all the chips were down," the analyst observed.

"Ironically, with the exception of [Recep Tayyip] Erdogan, all other regional and international leaders who made this call have either stepped down, passed away, were forced into retirement or imprisoned, or simply finished their terms, all the while Assad is still standing," he concluded.

The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official position of Sputnik.

IN ALEPPO, 'RUSSO-SYRIAN ALLIANCE HAS THE UPPER HAND, WILL END UP VICTORIOUS' ' By Ghassan Kadi 1 Dec 2016

In  Aleppo, 'Russo-Syrian Alliance Has the Upper Hand, Will End Up Victorious'

https://sputniknews.com/politics/201612011048041667-aleppo-syria-russia/

In Aleppo, 'Russo-Syrian Alliance Has the Upper Hand, Will End Up Victorious'

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While the Syrian Arab Army is making progress in Aleppo it has become clear that the West has no real leverage to topple Syrian President Bashar al-Assad or implement a no-fly zone in Syria, Syrian political analyst Ghassan Kadi told Sputnik.

The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has made considerable progress in liberating Aleppo from terrorists by capturing more than a third of the territory held by jihadists in the eastern part of the city.

Given the current state of affairs, Moscow hopes that the situation in Aleppo could be resolved by the end of 2016, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov told RIA Novosti on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, terrorist groupings of Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (al-Nusra Front) and Daesh (ISIS/ISIL) continue to resist fiercely the SAA's advance.

"Armed formations of the Free Syrian Army have fired multiple launch rocket systems, mortars and small arms against al-Masharqa and Salah al-Din quarters in the Aleppo city. In the Aleppo province, terrorist groupings of Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (al-Nusra Front) and ISIS [Daesh] have fired multiple launch rocket systems, tube artillery, mortars and small arms against Shurfa inhabited area, Binyamin, Jamaiyah Faht, Dahiya al-Assad, Amri, Aqyul, Arian, Sheikh Said, Hai al-Andalus, Karen Jabal, Jabal Bidaru, Art Sabah and 1070 quarters, Hikma School, Kastello trade center, areas of paperboard factory and melon market in the Aleppo city," Russia's Ministry of Defense reported Wednesday.

However, the West's media sources continue to turn a blind eye to terrorists' actions on the ground in Aleppo, and portray the SAA's operation as a "brutal campaign" which could be "one of the biggest massacres of civilian population since World War II."

Aleppo has recently become Syria's major battle ground.

"It was inevitable ever since the 'War on Syria' started that the battle of Aleppo was eventually going to be the make-it-or-break-it for either side to score the final and overwhelming win," Ghassan Kadi, a Syrian political analyst and expert on Middle Eastern affairs, told Sputnik.

"Realistically, the Syrian Army would have been unable to engage at the current level in Aleppo without Russia's help," he continued.

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"With the on-going influx of fighters and munitions coming in from Turkey, it was like sealing a leaking dam with one's own hands. And even though Erdogan is not yet true to his promises of sealing the borders, the Russian intervention on one hand gave Syria the upper hand, and on the other hand, Erdogan is now possibly getting serious about fighting ISIS [Daesh] because he now realizes that he has to work with Russia, and the only way for him to be able to have some control on the final outcome of the negotiation with/about the Kurds is to first take ISIS [Daesh] out of the equation," the analyst elaborated.

Russia and Damascus have come under heavy criticism from the West for their Aleppo operation. What lies at the root of the West's discontent?

"The Western discontent stems from the fact that the chaos they have created is getting cleaned up. I am not at all a believer in the West's ability to successfully mastermind and execute plans. Their history speaks for it. Their history is a series of failures all the way from Korea to Libya. Perhaps they have learned to accept that they are unable to achieve any concrete positive outcome anywhere, and that they need to focus on and settle for second best; i.e. creating chaos that will hurt their enemies. And if someone steps in to replace the chaos with order, they will fight him tooth and nail," Kadi pointed out.

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Meanwhile, the SAA and the Free Syrian Army backed by Turkey are taking efforts to liberate the Syrian city of al-Bab from Daesh from the southeast and southwest respectively.

Since August 24 Turkey has been conducting the Euphrates Shield operation in northern Syria.

In his recent interview with Sputnik Brig. Gen. Samir Suleiman, Head of the Media Affairs of the Syrian Army's Political Office, dubbed Washington and Ankara's actions in the region as "interference in [Syria's] internal affairs, aggression and intervention."

For his part, Zekeriya Abdulmecit, a representative of the Army of Revolutionaries, part of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), told Sputnik on Friday that Ankara is allegedly planning to build a military base in northern Syria on territory captured during the ongoing Euphrates Shield operation.

"At the end of the day, once all military hostilities cease, Turkey will have to withdraw its troops from Syria (and Iraq), and I have no doubt that this will happen, and this is why America is banking on keeping a de facto presence by attempting to create an independent Kurdish entity," Kadi emphasized.

"At the moment, in my view, whilst acknowledging that other analysts may disagree, I believe that apart from the Saudis and Qataris, all other parties agree that ISIS [Daesh] needs to be defeated; including the ones who are supporting it directly or indirectly," he stressed.

Syrian pro-government forces sit on a military vehicle driving past residents fleeing the eastern part of Aleppo and gathering in Masaken Hanano, a former rebel-held district which was retaken by the regime forces last week, on November 30, 2016. - Sputnik International
Syrian pro-government forces sit on a military vehicle driving past residents fleeing the eastern part of Aleppo and gathering in Masaken Hanano, a former rebel-held district which was retaken by the regime forces last week, on November 30, 2016.

However, since a final deal, as it were, has not yet been struck between those parties who disagree about everything else, each and every one of them is trying to gain as much mileage as possible, some from ISIS [Daesh] itself, before they sit together at the negotiating table. All of those parties know and acknowledge that the Russian-Syrian alliance has the upper hand and will end up victorious," the analyst emphasized.

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"The biggest losers will undoubtedly be Saudi Arabia and Qatar. They may not even send envoys to the negotiations under the guise of protest. This leaves primarily Turkey and the United States. This is why they are trying to establish as much foothold as possible so they can take a bargaining chip with them, and not particularly because they intend to stay within Syria. They may wish to be able to stay, but they know they cannot," Kadi told Sputnik.

The analyst underscored that it is becoming clear now that the days of calling for Assad to step down, for Western-backed interim governments to be formed, implementing no-fly-zones, sanctions, military action and so forth are over and done with.

"They have all been tabled on the agenda of the enemies of Syria, and neither one of them came to fruition," he remarked.

"For as long as the Syrian people continue to support President Assad, and they do, when President Assad eventually leaves his office, it will more than likely be a retirement, at a time of his choosing, and as a victor and he will be recorded in history as an unparalleled hero who stood up against all odds," the analyst concluded.

The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official position of Sputnik.